Long-term regime scenario tree
The investing analogue of the day-trade tree: the branches are the market regimes the cycle can be in. Each carries the factor base rates measured in that regime, so you plan your posture for each regime in advance and respond to whichever one the market is actually in. A contingency map, not a timing call.
Bull · risk-on
Regime: benchmark above its 200-day line with positive 6-month momentum
No measured factor base rates for this regime
Posture: The trend-following branch. Historically the momentum / above-200-day factors carry the biggest lift over baseline here — read the table below as that record, not a promise.
Neutral · chop
Regime: no clear trend — mixed breadth, neither bull nor bear thresholds met
No measured factor base rates for this regime
Posture: The compressed-edge branch. Factor lifts over baseline shrink in the chop; the honest read is that most edges are smaller and noisier here.
Bear · risk-off
Regime: drawdown breach from the trailing peak (≤ −20% by default)
No measured factor base rates for this regime
Posture: The defensive branch. Trend factors historically turn negative here; the pullback / mean-reversion factor is where any measured edge tends to sit. Read the table as the losing-side record, honestly measured.
> Educational scenario framework, not investment advice or market timing. Each branch is a regime definition plus its measured factor base rates — read each factor as a lift over the baseline row, and the median as the typical case. Free-feed data has survivorship bias; past statistics do not predict the future.