Day-trade scenario tree — opening-range contingency map
You do not predict which way a name goes. You map the branches it *can* take from the open, attach the honest measured odds to each, decide your response to each in advance, then watch which branch confirms. A contingency map, not a forecast — every branch is a rule plus a historical base rate.
A · Gap-and-go continuation
Confirms: a bar closes above the opening-range high
No measured base rate yet
Response: This is the trend-day branch. IF the OR high breaks, read the [opening_range_break] base rate below as the historical odds for that condition — not a promise. Watch whether it holds above the breakout level; the branch flips to C if it later loses the OR low.
Negated: loses the opening-range low (→ branch C)
B · Range / undecided
Confirms: past the opening-range window with no break in either direction
Response: The no-edge branch: no setup has fired, so there is no measured base rate to act on. Historically the tradeable information is in the break, not the chop — this branch is where standing aside is the honest read.
Negated: resolves into A (breaks OR high) or C (loses OR low)
C · Breakdown / fade
Confirms: a bar closes below the opening-range low
No measured base rate yet
Response: The long-thesis-dead branch. IF the OR low breaks, read the [opening_range_fade] base rate below — expect it to be poor (that is the point of measuring the losing branch honestly). This is the branch where a long idea is invalidated, stated descriptively, not as a sell order.
Negated: reclaims the opening-range high (→ branch A)
> Educational scenario framework, not a prediction or advice. Each branch is a rule-based condition plus its measured historical base rate (losers included). Invalidation levels define the branch; they are not sell/buy instructions. Real intraday fills suffer slippage/spread, worse on low-float names. Past ≠ future.