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Chart pattern · measured base rate

52-week-high breakout: the real win rate

A breakout to a new 52-week high — momentum/all-time-high style entry.

Survivorship-free — delisted names included. Historical base rate, a record, not a prediction. Not investment advice.

What it is

Buying strength as a stock prints a new 52-week high. The momentum factor has decades of academic support at the portfolio level; as a single-name entry, the measured follow-through and pullback behaviour is what to study.

Measured base rate

We are measuring this pattern on survivorship-free data (delisted names included). Numbers appear here once the study completes.

Win% = share of occurrences with a positive forward return. Avg win / avg loss show the reward-to-risk, which matters as much as the hit rate — a high win rate with a bad reward/risk still loses.

Full data reportEvery setup & factor base rate — the complete measured tables, survivorship-free →
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Educational data. These are historical base rates measured on survivorship-free US-stock history; past statistics do not predict future results, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.