Chart pattern · measured base rate

First green day (bounce): the real win rate

The first up-close after a sharp multi-day decline — a mean-reversion bounce.

Survivorship-free — delisted names included. Historical base rate, a record, not a prediction. Not investment advice.

What it is

After a steep sell-off, the first day that closes green marks a possible short-term bottom. It is a mean-reversion setup, not a trend setup, so the forward window is short and the reward/risk matters more than a high win rate.

Measured base rate

We are measuring this pattern on survivorship-free data (delisted names included). Numbers appear here once the study completes.

Win% = share of occurrences with a positive forward return. Avg win / avg loss show the reward-to-risk, which matters as much as the hit rate — a high win rate with a bad reward/risk still loses.

Learn the skill → First green day — trading a bounce, not a trend Full data reportEvery setup & factor base rate — the complete measured tables, survivorship-free →

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Educational data. These are historical base rates measured on survivorship-free US-stock history; past statistics do not predict future results, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.