Gap-and-go: the real win rate

A stock gaps up at the open and holds the gap instead of fading.

What it is

A large opening gap on a catalyst, where the first candles close green and hold above the open, is the 'go' confirmation. The failure mode — fading the gap — is common, which is exactly why the measured hold rate matters.

Measured base rate

We are measuring this pattern on survivorship-free data (delisted names included). Numbers appear here once the study completes.

Win% = share of occurrences with a positive forward return. Avg win / avg loss show the reward-to-risk, which matters as much as the hit rate — a high win rate with a bad reward/risk still loses.