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Chart pattern · measured base rate

Post-spike base breakout: the real win rate

A stock surges, bases sideways to digest the move, then breaks the range on volume.

Survivorship-free — delisted names included. Historical base rate, a record, not a prediction. Not investment advice.

What it is

After a sharp run-up, price consolidates in a tight range while volume dries up. A breakout above the range on rising volume is the trigger. Traders like it because the prior surge proves demand and the base gives a clean risk level below the range.

Measured base rate

We are measuring this pattern on survivorship-free data (delisted names included). Numbers appear here once the study completes.

Win% = share of occurrences with a positive forward return. Avg win / avg loss show the reward-to-risk, which matters as much as the hit rate — a high win rate with a bad reward/risk still loses.

Learn the skill → The post-spike base breakout, as a rule you can measure Full data reportEvery setup & factor base rate — the complete measured tables, survivorship-free →
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Educational data. These are historical base rates measured on survivorship-free US-stock history; past statistics do not predict future results, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.