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Chart pattern · measured base rate

Three white soldiers: the real win rate

Three consecutive strong up-closes — a classic momentum candlestick pattern.

Survivorship-free — delisted names included. Historical base rate, a record, not a prediction. Not investment advice.

What it is

A candlestick pattern of three straight higher closes, taught everywhere as a bullish reversal. Its measured base rate is close to a coin flip in most conditions — a good example of a widely-cited pattern that the honest numbers deflate.

Measured base rate

We are measuring this pattern on survivorship-free data (delisted names included). Numbers appear here once the study completes.

Win% = share of occurrences with a positive forward return. Avg win / avg loss show the reward-to-risk, which matters as much as the hit rate — a high win rate with a bad reward/risk still loses.

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Educational data. These are historical base rates measured on survivorship-free US-stock history; past statistics do not predict future results, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.