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Long-term investing · 5 of 6

Not overbought — RSI as a timing filter

Entering when the 14-day RSI isn't stretched (below 70) avoids chasing. A timing overlay on top of trend and momentum.

A trading skill, taught as a rule + its measured base rate. Educational — never a recommendation to buy or sell.

Even a great long-term name is a poor entry when it’s overbought — stretched far above its recent range after a fast run. RSI(14) above 70 is the common marker. Waiting for RSI to cool below 70 is a simple way to avoid buying the exact top of a spike.

A filter on a filter

“Not overbought” isn’t an edge on its own — it’s a timing overlay. Trend and momentum say what to own; the RSI filter nudges when, so you’re not paying up right into exhaustion. The measured lift is smaller precisely because it’s a refinement, not a thesis.

Don’t invert it into a short signal

Overbought doesn’t mean “sell short” — strong names stay overbought for a long time. It just means “don’t chase here.”

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Educational content on trading concepts and their historical base rates, measured on survivorship-free US-stock history. Past statistics do not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.