A free, ordered path through the core setups and factors — each defined as a precise rule and paired with its measured, survivorship-free base rate. Concepts and probabilities, never stock picks.
new to investing? start here
A plain-English starting point — with the honest data most beginner guides skip. No hype, no picks, just what actually holds up.
Lesson 2The honest comparison beginners rarely get: why most stock-pickers lose to a boring index fund, and what to do if you still want to pick.
Lesson 3Less than you think — and the amount matters far less than the habits. What actually determines whether you get anywhere.
Lesson 4'Buy the dip' works — but only a certain kind of dip. The measured, survivorship-free base rate draws the line for you.
Lesson 5The plainest possible explanation of shares, prices, and the market — with none of the jargon and none of the hype.
Lesson 6The mechanics of your first purchase — brokerage, order types, and the beginner mistakes that quietly cost the most.
Lesson 7Candles, trends, and volume in plain English — plus the honest limit of what a chart can and can't tell you.
Lesson 8A beginner's checklist for judging a stock with data instead of tips — trend, momentum, and measured base rates.
1–10 day chart patterns
A setup is a rule, not a feeling. Learn to define one precisely and judge it by its measured base rate.
Lesson 2Relative volume compares today's volume to the stock's own average. It's the single most-watched sign a name is in play.
Lesson 3A stock surges, digests sideways, then breaks the range on volume. Learn to define the base and the trigger.
Lesson 4A stock gaps up on a catalyst and holds instead of fading. Learn the confirmation and the common failure mode.
Lesson 5The first up-close after a sharp decline is a mean-reversion setup. Reward-to-risk matters more than win rate here.
Lesson 6Win rate and reward-to-risk combine into expectancy; position sizing turns expectancy into survivable risk.
Lesson 7Free data hides the stocks that died. Counting only survivors makes every strategy look better than it was.
1–12 month factors
A factor is a measurable trait (trend, momentum, value) linked to future returns. Read every factor as a lift over the market baseline.
Lesson 2Being above the 200-day moving average is the simplest long-term trend filter. Its measured lift over baseline is the point.
Lesson 3Stocks that rose over the last 6–12 months have tended to keep outperforming. Momentum has decades of academic support at the portfolio level.
Lesson 4A modest pullback (roughly −5% to −30% from the high) in an otherwise strong name is the classic 'buy the dip' zone. The data says how modest.
Lesson 5Entering when the 14-day RSI isn't stretched (below 70) avoids chasing. A timing overlay on top of trend and momentum.
Lesson 6A factor's numbers mean nothing without the unconditioned baseline next to them. Learn to read the lift, not the level.