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Pullback buy-zones — dips inside an uptrend

A modest pullback (roughly −5% to −30% from the high) in an otherwise strong name is the classic 'buy the dip' zone. The data says how modest.

A trading skill, taught as a rule + its measured base rate. Educational — never a recommendation to buy or sell.

“Buy the dip” only works when the dip is shallow enough to be a pause, not a breakdown. The pullback buy-zone defines it as a name a measured distance below its recent high — deep enough to get a better price, shallow enough that the uptrend is likely intact.

Depth is everything

A −8% dip in a leader is a different animal from a −60% collapse. The forward returns by pullback depth show where “dip” quietly becomes “falling knife.” Pair the zone with a trend filter so you’re only buying dips in names that are still above their 200-day.

It’s a zone, not a bottom-call

You are not trying to catch the exact low — that’s a fool’s errand. You’re buying a statistically favourable range and sizing for the case where it keeps falling.

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Educational content on trading concepts and their historical base rates, measured on survivorship-free US-stock history. Past statistics do not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.