A beginner's checklist for judging a stock with data instead of tips — trend, momentum, and measured base rates.
If you're going to pick individual stocks, the difference between gambling and investing is one word: research. Not a hot tip from a group chat — a repeatable way to judge the odds. Here's a beginner's checklist. Educational only; nothing here recommends buying any stock.
Start with the simplest, most robust question: is the stock above its 200-day line? Names above their long-term trend have historically behaved better than those below it. It's not a guarantee — it's a base rate that tilts the odds.
Has the stock been strong over the last 6–12 months? Momentum is one of the few factors that persists in survivorship-free data. Fighting a downtrend because a stock "should" bounce is how beginners lose money.
A great company bought at a screaming-hot price can still lose you money. Check whether it's overbought or sitting in a reasonable pullback zone — entry price is part of the odds.
Every stock has a story attached to it. Stories are cheap. What's rare — and what actually helps — is the measured base rate of the situation you're in. That's the whole point of our data: you decide with odds, not a narrative.
Look up any ticker's factor scorecard — trend, momentum, and overbought status with measured base rates, on one page. Research first, buy second.